February-18: John K Hollmann appoints RIMPL to represent him in Australia and New Zealand, coming to Australia
Well-known and respected quantitative risk analysis specialist and author of the important book "Project Risk Quantification", John K Hollmann PE, CCP, CEP, DRMP has appointed RIMPL to represent him and his company Validation Estimating, LLC in Australia and New Zealand. John has given an enormous amount of his professional time to AACE International to edit and contribute to various Recommended Practices, including 10 years of effort in the creation and editing of the first edition (2006) of "Total Cost Management Framework", the systems engineering foundation of all AACE's knowledge base and RPs. More about John is included in RIMPL's review of his book, in our December 2016 Newsletter.
John is particularly keen to educate senior executives about the importance of quantifying project risk realistically and to teach project risk specialists how to perform the Hybrid Parametric + Expected Value schedule and cost contingency methodology described in his book.
To this end, John is visiting Australia in June to deliver a three-day training workshop in Melbourne and address Australian Cost Engineering Society (ACES) professional meetings in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. He will also meet with senior business and project executives in the three cities to explain the significance of quantifying project time and cost risk realistically.
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November-16: RIMPL Completes SRA Roles in Successful Train Sets Tenders
From March to June 2016, RIMPL developed Schedule Risk Analyses (SRAs) for Downer EDI Rail, the lead partner in the Evolution Rail Consortium bidding for the Victorian Government's High Capacity Metro Train (HCMT) tender to build, own and operate 65 train sets (each 7 carriages) to run on the Melbourne metropolitan rail network. Other partners in the consortium are CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles (the world's largest manufacturer of trains) and Plenary Group (a Canadian Public Private Partnership specialist well experienced in Australia in financial packaging of PPPs). RIMPL developed SRAs for the overall design, procurement, manufacture, local assembly, testing and handover of the 65 train sets and for the design and construction of a training and maintenance facility for the HCMT trains near Pakenham. Further revisions were made to the SRA modeling between August and October, in response to revised Government requirements.
In July 2016, RIMPL also developed at short notice for Downer EDI Rail an SRA model for the Sydney Growth Trains tender for the NSW Government. This involved the design, procurement, manufacture, assembly, testing and handover of 24 train sets, along with modifications to a maintenance facility.
Both tenders were successful, for which RIMPL congratulates Downer EDI Rail!
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20-March-14: RIMPL EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES
Risk Integration Management believes in providing useful information into the public domain on the underlying theory and practices of risk management and especially quantitative risk analysis. We do this in various ways, as described below.
Conferences:
RIMPL presented to the Project Management Institute's National Project Management conference PMOz in September 2013 on "Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil & Gas Exploration in Papua New Guinea". The presentation described the use of Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) to help an oil & gas explorer client improve the quality and realism of their planning and estimating. The client collaborated in the development of the presentation.
A paper based on the above work, co-authored with the client, has been accepted by the Association for Advancement of Cost Engineering International for their Annual Meeting in New Orleans in June 2014
and also for a Total Cost Management International Conference
organised by AACEI planned for November 2014 in Bangkok. The paper is titled "Planning and Estimating Risky Projects: Oil and Gas Exploration".
RIMPL has also submitted an abstract accepted by the World Congress of the International Cost Engineering Council,
on "Re-engineering Project Budgeting and Management of Risk" in Milan in October 2014. The paper sets out reasons why too many projects still fail to achieve their projected profitability targets or even to be completed within their budgeted time and cost and explains why IRA materially improves the likelihood of project success.
It goes on to explain how extending the modelling to include project operation and revenue generation, their associated uncertainties and risk events can enable probabilistic cash flows, NPVs and IRRs to be generated. Through this the balance between probabilistic profit, break-even and unacceptable loss can be measured and the drivers quantified for risk optimisation.
Contributions to Professional Forums:
RIMPL makes regular contributions through its Directors to Risk Management forums, engaging in discussion on issues relevant to RIMPL's areas of expertise and experience, particularly quantitative project risk analysis. These include:
•Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis forum on LinkedIn; •Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) LinkedIn forum; •Oracle's Primavera Risk Analysis LinkedIn forum; •Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Modelling LinkedIn forumLecturing and presenting to Professional Associations:
RIMPL's Managing Director has been guest lecturing on Project Management topics to diploma and masters degree students at Victoria University since 1992. Topics have included Project Planning, Delivering Quality Projects and Risk Management.
He has also guest lectured at Swinburne University and RMIT University on similar topics.
For the last two years, he has guest-lectured in Risk Management at the University of Canberra to a master's degree in Procurement.
RIMPL's Managing Director has presented to professional associations from time to time including:
•Melbourne Chapter of PMI •Australian Cost Engineering Society of Engineers Australia; •Australian Institute of Project Management Project Controls Specific Interest GroupRIMPL's Managing Director was Chairperson of the Victorian Primavera User Group (VPUG) between 1997 and 2009, when Oracle took over control of Primavera User Groups. VPUG was the only Australian Primavera User Group independent of the Primavera dealers for most of that time.
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